The political party that defends your right to own guns, keep your income, and worship freely is probably not the party to fear.

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Connecticut – Fruit, Maybe, But Not Low Hanging

Connecticut, like all of New England, is a Democratic stronghold. Chris Shays, defeated in 2008, was the last Connecticut Republican to serve in the House of Representatives.

With no Republicans representing the state, the future might look grim. Considering that Shays was not the most conservative Republican in the House, or that Connecticut has not sent conservatives to Congress in decades, it looks even more grim. (Shays, however, did point out that the economy now belonged to Obama, a point in his favor.) That being said, the election of Republicans would still be considered an improvement. But it won’t be easy. Only two districts provide any hope: CT-04 (Shays old district) and CT-05.

CT-04: Jim Himes – D

Himes defeated Shays in the 2008 debacle. The district, however, has some comfort with Republicans, since Shays served for 12 years. The Cook PVI rating for CT-04 is D+5, significant but not impossible. If the Obama shine begins to fade, a Republican may become viable again. Still, it will take a considerable effort to organize and finance a Republican.

CT-05: Chris Murphy – D

CT-05 has been an on-off proposition for both parties. It was merged with CT-06 in 2006, the year that Murphy was elected. However, both CT-05 and CT-06 have a history of electing both Democrats and Republicans. The Cook PVI rating is D+2, which is a more positive sign for Republicans.

Like most of New England, conservatives rarely fair well in elections. A moderate Republican is the best we could hope for, but even a moderate will be much more conservative than the Democrats. At least, we hope so. Shays would be an improvement, as would any moderate Republican of the Shays or Lindsey Graham model.

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