The political party that defends your right to own guns, keep your income, and worship freely is probably not the party to fear.

Monday, May 25, 2009

Arkansas - Low Hanging Fruit

Arkansas has more potential for conservatives than any other state. Currently, three Democrats represent the state in the House, and two Democrats represent the state in the Senate. All three representatives must run in 2010, and one of the Senators, Blanche Lincoln, must run in 2010, as well. There is no reason that all of them cannot be defeated in 2010.

House of Representatives

AR-03: Representative: John Boozman- R
Boozman is Arkansas only Republican representative. Barring scandal, Boozman should be safe. He has served since 2001, so he is well known to District 03. District 3 has a strong Republican base, voting against Obama by almost 2-1.

AR-01: Representative: Marion Berry – D (No, not that Marion Berry)
Berry has served in the House since 1996. AR-01 is a conservative district, at least more conservative than he is. The Cook PVI (Partisan Voting Index) for AR-01 is R+8. The last time the district voted for a Democrat was in 2000, when the district voted for Gore. Since then, Bush received 62% of the votes in 2004, and McCain 64% of the vote in 2008. Berry also voted for the Obama stimulus bill, and that should also hurt him in conservative Arkansas.

Berry has a challenger in 2010: Rick Crawford. With the declining popularity of Pelosi and the ineffectiveness of Blue Dog Democrats to represent their conservative districts, Crawford’s chances look good.

AR-02: Vic Snyder – D
Like Berry, Snyder is an old hand. He was also elected in 1996, but he also represents a conservative district. His chances look a bit better than Berry’s. AR-02 has a Cook PVI rating of R+5, and while McCain carried the district in 2008, he did so by 11 points fewer than his totals in AR-01 (64% vs. 53%). He faces the same challenges as all Blue Dog Democrats: Pelosi, Obama’s budgets, increasingly liberal social policies such as abortion, gay marriage, etc.

AR-02, where is a challenger for this seat?

AR-04: Mike Ross – D

Ross’ vulnerabilities are closer to Berry than Snyder. The Cook PVI for AR-04 is R+7, only 1 point lower than AR-01. The Republican turnout in 2008 was 58%, only six points less than AR-01. Like all Democrats in Arkansas, Ross is vulnerable.

Ar-04, where is a challenger for this seat?


Blanche Lincoln – D

There is no reason for Blanche Lincoln to continue in the Senate. She knows that she is vulnerable, which is why she announced her opposition to Card Check after it was pronounce dead letter. It will be interesting to see what happens when the issue comes up again. Card Check is not the only issue that she is vulnerable on. Obama’s SCOTUS appointee will be liberal, very liberal. Her vote on the appointee will affect national recognition of gay marriage, national security, and a host of other issues near and dear to Arkansas.

Mike Huckabee, where are you?

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